Carta economistas sobre TPP y control de capitales

February 28, 2012

Hon. Craig Emerson, Trade Minister

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia

H.R.H. Prince Mohamed Bolkiah, Minister

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Brunei Darussalam

Hon. Alfredo Moreno Charme, Minister

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Chile

Yb. Dato’ Sri Mustapa Bin Mohamed, Minister

Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Malaysia

Hon. Tim Groser, Trade Minister

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of New Zealand

Hon. Eduardo Ferreyros, Minister

Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism of Peru

Hon. Lim Hng Kiang, Minister

Ministry of Trade and Industry of Singapore

Amb. Ronald Kirk, Trade Representative

Office of the United States Trade Representative

Hon. Vu Huy Hoang, Minister

Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam

Re: Promoting financial stability in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Estimados ministros de comercio,

Nosotros, los economistas abajo firmantes, le escribimos acerca de las disposiciones sobre transferencias de capital en el Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP). Nos preocupa que si se utilizan los últimos tratados de EE. UU. como modelo para el TPP, el acuerdo limitará indebidamente la autoridad de las partes participantes para prevenir y mitigar las crisis financieras.

Casi todos los acuerdos de libre comercio (TLC) de EE. UU. y los tratados bilaterales de inversión (TBI) limitan estrictamente la capacidad de los socios comerciales para implementar controles de capital, sin garantías para tiempos de crisis. Algunos acuerdos comerciales recientes de los EE. UU. ponen algunos límites a la cantidad de daños que los inversores extranjeros pueden recibir como compensación por ciertas medidas de control de capital. También amplían el período de “enfriamiento” antes de que los inversores puedan presentar reclamaciones en tribunales internacionales.1 Sin embargo, estas reformas menores no son lo suficientemente extensas como para garantizar que los gobiernos tengan la autoridad para utilizar tales herramientas políticas legítimas.

Investigaciones autorizadas publicadas por la Oficina Nacional de Investigación Económica, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y otras instituciones han descubierto que los límites a los flujos de capital a corto plazo pueden detener el desarrollo de burbujas de activos peligrosos y apreciaciones de divisas, otorgar a las naciones más autonomía en la formulación de políticas monetarias y proteger a las naciones de los peligros de una fuga de capitales abrupta.2

La rígida oposición del gobierno de EE. UU. a los controles de capital no refleja la norma global. Según un informe del FMI, “la mayoría de los TBI y los TLC proporcionan salvaguardas temporales a las entradas y salidas de capitales para prevenir o mitigar las crisis financieras, o difieren ese asunto de la legislación del país anfitrión. Sin embargo, los TBI y los TLC en los que los Estados Unidos son parte (con la excepción del TLCAN) no permiten restricciones ni a las entradas ni a las salidas de capital “.3 De hecho, otros países del TPP generalmente permiten una mayor flexibilidad en sus tratados de comercio e inversión.

Si bien los controles de capital y otras técnicas de gestión del capital no son una panacea para la inestabilidad financiera, existe un consenso emergente de que son una parte importante del conjunto de herramientas macroeconómicas. De hecho, todos los líderes del G-20 respaldaron la siguiente declaración en la Cumbre de Cannes 2011:

“Las medidas de gestión del flujo de capital pueden constituir parte de un enfoque más amplio para proteger a las economías de los impactos. En circunstancias de flujos de capital elevados y volátiles, las medidas de gestión del flujo de capital pueden complementarse y utilizarse junto con, en lugar de sustituir, políticas monetarias, cambiarias, de gestión de reservas extranjeras y prudenciales apropiadas”.5

El aumento de la estabilidad financiera beneficia a las empresas, los trabajadores y los consumidores en todas las partes del TPP. Cuando un país cae en crisis, sus socios comerciales pierden mercados de exportación. Cuando un país no puede controlar las burbujas financieras que aumentan los valores de las divisas, los consumidores en los países socios comerciales pueden verse afectados por el aumento de los precios en los productos importados. Cuando los tipos de cambio son inestables, los inversores a largo plazo y las empresas dedicadas a la exportación o la importación se enfrentan a la incertidumbre.

Por lo tanto, recomendamos que el TPP permita a los gobiernos implementar controles de capital sin estar sujetos a demandas de inversionistas, como parte de un menú más amplio de opciones de políticas para prevenir y mitigar las crisis financieras.

Esperamos discutir estos temas más a fondo. Por favor dirija sus preguntas a:

Sarah Anderson, Instituto de Estudios de Políticas, sarah@ips-dc.org

Kevin P. Gallagher, Universidad de Boston, kpg@bu.edu

Sinceramente,

1. Frank Ackerman, Senior Economist, Climate Economics Group, Stockholm Environment Institute, USA
2. Alice Amsden, Professor of Development Economics, MIT, USA
3. Sarah Anderson, Global Economy Project Director, Institute for Policy Studies, USA
4. Dean Baker, Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research, USA
5. Nesecan Balkan, Professor, Department of Economics, Hamilton College, USA
6. Lourdes Benería, Professor Emerita, Dept. of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University, USA
7. Jagdish Bhagwati, Professor of Economics, Columbia University, USA
8. Robert Blecker, Department Chair, Economics, American University, USA
9. Howard Botwinick, Associate Professor of Economics, SUNY Cortland, USA
10. John Cavanagh, Director, Institute for Policy Studies, USA
11. Kimberly Christensen, Professor of Economics, Sarah Lawrence College, USA
12. Jane D’Arista, Research Associate, Political Economy Research Institute, USA
13. Paul Davidson, Editor, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, USA
14. Gerald Epstein, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
15. Thomas Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Roosevelt Institute, USA
16. Kirsten Ford, PhD Candidate, University of Utah, USA
17. Kevin Gallagher, Associate Professor, Boston University and Senior Researcher, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, USA
18. Neva Goodwin, Co-Director, Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University, USA
19. Ilene Grabel, Professor and Co-Director, MA in Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration, University of Denver, USA
20. Stephany Griffith-Jones, Financial Markets Director, Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, USA
21. Jonathan Harris, Director, Theory and Education Program and Senior Research Associate, Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University, USA
22. Martin Hart-Landsberg, Professor of Economics, Clark University, USA
23. Ann Helwege, Professor of International Relations, Boston University, USA
24. Adam S. Hersh, Economist, Center for American Progress, USA
25. P. Sai-wing Ho, Associate Professor, University of Denver, USA
26. Olivier Jeanne, Professor of Economics, Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA
27. Ethan Kaplan, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, USA
28. Emily Kawano, Executive Director, Center for Popular Economics, USA
29. Jan Kregel, Levy Economics Institute, Bard College, USA
30. Haider A. Khan, Professor of Economics, University of Denver, USA
31. Timothy Koechlin, Director of International Studies Program, Vassar College, USA
32. Anton Korinek, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland, USA
33. Arthur MacEwan, Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Massachusetts, Boston, USA
34. Elaine McCrate, Associate Professor of Economics and Women’s Studies, University of Vermont, USA
35. John A. Miller, Professor of Economics, Wheaton College, USA
36. Tracy Mott, Associate Professor and Department Chair, Dept. of Economics, University of Denver, USA
37. Julie A. Nelson, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts Boston, USA
38. José Antonio Ocampo, Professor of Economics, Columbia University, USA
39. Thomas Palley, Associate, Economic Growth Program, New America Foundation, USA
40. Eva Paus, Professor, Department of Economics, Mt. Holyoke College, USA
41. Dani Rodrik, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, USA
42. Jaime Ros, Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame, USA
43. Héctor Sáez, Analyst, Environment and Economy, USA
44. John Schmitt, Senior Economist, Center for Economic and Policy Research, USA
45. Stephanie Seguino, Professor of Economics, University of Vermont, USA
46. Heidi Shierholz, Economist, Economic Policy Institute, USA
47. Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and Center for Global Development (CGD), USA
48. Matías Vernengo, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Utah, USA
49. Tam Vu, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, USA
50. Thomas Weisskopf, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Michigan, USA
51. Timothy Wise, Director of Research and Policy Program, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, USA
52. Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research, USA
53. Martin H. Wolfson, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame, USA
54. L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics, University of Missouri, Kansas City, USA
55. George Argyrous, Senior Lecturer, University of New South Wales, Australia
56. Grant Belchamber, Economist, Australian Council of Trade Unions, Australia
57. Ross Buckley, Professor of International Finance Law, University of New South Wales, Australia
58. Robert Dixon, Professor, University of Melbourne, Australia
59. Susan Engel, Professor of History & Politics, University of Wollongong, Australia
60. G. C. Harcourt, Professor Emeritus, University of New South Wales, Australia
61. Gillian Hewitson, Professor, Dept. of Political Economy, University of Sydney, Australia
62. Evan Jones, Professor, Department of Political Economy, University of Sydney, Australia
63. P.N. (Raja) Junankar, Professorial Visiting Fellow, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Australia
64. Steve Keen, Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Western Sydney, Australia
65. John King, Professor of Economics, School of Economics and Finance, Latrobe University, Australia
66. John Langmore, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
67. Bruce Littleboy, Professor, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia
68. Bill Lucarelli, Senior Lecturer, Economics and Finance, University of Western Sydney, Australia
69. Robert E. Marks, Emeritus Professor, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Australia
70. Margaret McKenzie, Lecturer in Economics, School of Accounting Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Australia
71. Rod O’Donnell, Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney, Australia
72. Colin Richardson, Adjunct Professor of Economics, Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney, Australia
73. Ben Spies-Butcher, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie University, Australia
74. Kannan Srinivasan, Adjunct Research Fellow, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University, Australia
75. Frank Stilwell, Professor of Political Economy, University of Sydney, Australia
76. Manuel Agosin, Faculty of Economics, University of Chile, Chile
77. Alvaro Díaz, former Under Secretary of the Economy and Ambassador to Brazil, Chile
78. Luis Eduardo Escobar, Economist, Private Consultant, Chile
79. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, Professor of Economics, National Prize Social Sciences and Economics, University of Chile, Chile
80. Guillermo Le Fort Varela, Former Executive Director to IMF, Chile
81. Patricio Leiva, Director, Latin America Institute of International Relations, Universidad Miguel de Cervantes, Chile

82. Kee-Cheok Cheong, Senior Research Fellow, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaysia, Malaysia
83. K.F. Chin, Lecturer, National University of Malaysia, Malaysia
84. Martin Khor, Executive Director, South Centre, Malaysia
85. Hwok-Aun Lee, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaysia, Malaysia
86. Michael Mah-Hui Lim, Senior Visiting Fellow, Penang Institute, Malaysia
87. Satthiyan Nehru, Economist, Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia
88. Charles Santiago, Member of Parliament, Parliament of Malaysia, Malaysia
89. Peter Conway, Secretary, New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, New Zealand
90. Paul Dalziel, Professor of Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand
91. Tim Hazledine, Professor of Economics, University of Auckland, New Zealand
92. Prue Hyman, Associate Professor of Economics and Gender/Women’s Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
93. Keith Rankin, Lecturer, Department of Accounting and Finance, Unitec Institute of Technology, New Zealand
94. Bill Rosenberg, Policy Director and Economist, New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, New Zealand
95. Petrus Simons, Economic Consultant, New Zealand
96. Robert H. Wade, Professor, Department of International Development, London School of Economics, New Zealand
97. Humberto Campodonico, Economist, CEO, PETROPERU, Peru
98. Oscar Dancourt, Professor of Economics, Catholic University of Peru, Peru
99. Adolfo Figueroa, Emeritus Professor, Catholic University of Peru, Peru
100. Leonith Hinojosa, Professor, Open University, Peru
101. Jürgen Schuldt Lange, Professor of Economics, Universidad del Pacífico, Peru
102. Oscar Ugarteche, Investigador titular B, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Peru

1 See, for example, Annex 10-E of the U.S.-Peru FTA and Annex 10-C of the U.S.-Chile FTA.

2 For some of the most important recent studies see: Ostry JD, Ghosh AR, Habermeier K, Chamon M, Qureshi MS and Reinhardt DBS (2010). Capital Inflows. The Role of Controls. IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/04. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. Magud N, Reinhart CM (2011). Capital Controls: Myth and Reality – A Portfolio Balance Approach. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research. Korinek, Anton (2011), The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda, IMF Economic Review, 59: 523-561. Further studies are available upon request.

3 Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Luc Laeven, Marcos Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Annamaria Kokenyne, “Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?” IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/11/06, April 5, 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/sdn1106.pdf

4 Sarah Anderson, “Capital Controls and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Institute for Policy Studies, Sept. 10, 2011. http://www.ips-dc.org/reports/capital_controls_and_the_trans-pacific_partnership

5 G20 Coherent Conclusions for the Management of Capital Flows Drawing on Country Experiences, as endorsed by G20 Heads of State and Government, November 3-4, 2011. http://www.g20-g8.com/g8-g20/root/bank_objects/0000005999-Coherent_Conclusions_on_CFMs_postCannes.pdf